By Devayani Sathyan
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike its key interest rate once more by the end of September to 4.35% following a surprise hike on Tuesday and then hold policy for the rest of the year, according to economists in a snap Reuters poll.
Having paused rate increases in April, the central bank resumed tightening in June, underscoring the challenges of managing inflation.
Australian inflation fell to 7.0% last quarter but the latest monthly data showed a rise to 6.8% in April from 6.3% in March, still more than double the RBA’s target range of 2-3%, suggesting it has more work to do.
Following confusion in recent months over whether rates might go higher, Governor Philip Lowe in a speech on Wednesday said “more tightening may be required”, adding his “patience has a limit and (inflation) risks are starting to test that limit”.
Around three quarters of economists polled, 20 of 26, forecast the RBA would hike by at least 25 basis points to 4.35% by the end of September. The remaining six forecast the cash rate to stay at 4.10%.
But nearly two thirds, 16 of 26, expect the RBA to hold fire at its next meeting on July 4, with 10 forecasting a 25 basis point rise. Markets are pricing in a slightly greater than 50% probability of a July hike.
“Given our own views about the outlook for productivity, unit labour costs and the stickiness of services inflation we continue to expect another 25 basis point increase from the RBA, most likely in August,” said Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ.
“Our forecast is August because that is when the Reserve Bank will have the fresh inflation data from the quarterly CPI report. It is possible that they’ll raise earlier in July, and certainly the Reserve Bank has surprised the market before. “
Among major local banks, ANZ, CBA and NAB forecast a July pause while Westpac expects a quarter-point hike. All four saw rates peaking at 4.35% by the end of September. The RBA meets to set interest rates monthly.
The median forecast showed the cash rate at 4.35% at year-end, 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in a poll taken before the June meeting. The highest forecast was 4.85%.
Australia’s economy grew 0.2% last quarter, its weakest pace in one and a half years, suggesting 400 basis points of rate increases from the RBA are beginning to restrain the economy.
But a surge in savings during the COVID pandemic and a tight labour market have made the interest rate sensitive housing market more resilient.
Home prices were expected to stagnate on average this year compared to a near double-digit fall predicted three months ago, a separate Reuters poll found.
(Reporting by Devayani Sathyan; Polling by Anant Chandak and Madhumita Gokhale; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley and Mark Potter)
