By Mike Dolan
April 1 –
What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets
“Off ramp” seems to be the word of the week surrounding the Iran war – and the steep Wall Street rally on the final day of the first quarter spoke to that relief on Tuesday.
Will April skies clear? The S&P 500’s jump of almost 3% was the biggest one-day gain since last May, and the other assets beaten down by the war – bonds, credit and gold – all followed suit.
I’ll get into that and more below.
But first, check out my latest column on how cash beat every classic safe haven in March. If you want to know why, just ask Warren Buffett.
And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast, where I discuss the relief rally and break down an upside surprise in U.S. consumer confidence.
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FINDING THE ‘OFF RAMP’
The ostensible triggers for the rally were signals from President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the U.S. could be set to wind down the war. This followed reports that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was willing to discuss a ceasefire in exchange for guarantees that attacks would not be repeated.
Brent crude traded around $103 per barrel on Wednesday morning, while WTI hovered around $100 after earlier dipping below that level.
As things stand, though, missile and drone exchanges in the Gulf continue. The extent of Tuesday’s market moves may also have had something to do with month-end and quarter-end considerations, as well as the holiday-shortened week.
But Asia’s markets followed suit on Wednesday, with sharp gains in Japan and South Korea. European markets are also up, and Wall Street futures look to have retained their gains ahead of today’s bell.
Meantime, gold climbed to a nearly two-week high before trimming some of its gains. The dollar edged down against a basket of major currencies, while the yen held firm under the 160-per-dollar level.
All this comes as President Trump prepares to address the nation on Wednesday evening to give an “important update on Iran”, according to the White House.
In the background, investors digested two pieces of U.S. economic information – a surprising rise in U.S. consumer confidence readings for March, and weaker soundings from the February job openings report.
In Asia, factory activity slowed in March amid rising fuel costs, but South Korea bucked the trend as activity rose at the strongest pace in more than four years on semiconductor demand. AI-driven appetite for semiconductors also boosted South Korea’s export growth to a four-decade high.
Stateside, the March private sector payroll update from ADP will be released later today, along with February retail sales. And, of course, the new quarter will focus attention on the Q1 corporate earnings season, with full-year growth estimates seemingly unchanged so far by the energy shock of the past month.
Chart of the day
Nike’s forecast of a surprise drop in fourth-quarter sales on Tuesday sent its shares down more than 9% in extended trading, as persistent weakness in China and slow progress in clearing older inventory hamper turnaround efforts. The company is reducing selling in China as it works through the inventory and expects China sales to fall a staggering 20% next quarter.
Today’s events to watch
* U.S. March ADP private payrolls (8:15 a.m. EDT), February retail sales (8:30 a.m. EDT), March manufacturing PMIs (10 a.m. EDT)
* President Trump delivers an update on Iran (9 p.m. EDT)
* Fed’s Michael Barr and St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem both speak
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(By Mike Dolan)
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