BEIJING, May 29 (Reuters) – China expects El Nino weather effects to peak in autumn and winter this year before weakening in spring next year, China’s National Climate Centre said on Friday.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have entered an El Nino state, and will develop into a moderate or higher intensity event in summer and autumn before peaking in autumn and winter, the Climate Centre’s deputy director, Gao Rong, told reporters.
“The probability of strong El Nino events is increasing, and it is expected to weaken next spring,” he said.
EL NINO IN PERIOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT
El Nino is a natural weather pattern linked to a warming of the central and eastern Pacific, bringing heavier rainfall to the Pacific coast of the Americas. In the Western Pacific, the shift can disrupt the East Asian monsoon, raising the odds of flooding in southern China and drought in other Chinese regions.
This spring and summer, El Nino is in a period of rapid development, with the atmosphere responding significantly to sea temperature changes, Gao said.
This is likely to enhance precipitation south of the Yangtze River, while temperatures across most of China are expected to be higher than usual.
In May, the national average temperature was 16.9 degrees Celsius (62.42 degrees Fahrenheit), 0.6 C higher than the same period in previous years.
Increased autumn rainfall in China’s southern regions as a result of El Nino also raises the risk of disruption to the harvest of late-season rice, while warmer-than-usual winter conditions could reduce available water supplies for next year’s spring ploughing.
SOUTHERN POWER GRID FLAGS MULTIPLE PEAKS IN POWER LOAD
China’s Southern Power Grid said on Friday that since the start of this year the entire power grid network, as well as the provinces and regions of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan, have hit new peak power loads more than 20 times.
That breaks the seasonal pattern of annual peaks concentrated in June and July from 2020 to 2025, it said.
With the national peak load predicted to hit 1,600 gigawatts this summer, up 90 GW from last year, the pressure on the grid is unprecedented, said Sharon Feng, special advisor at Beijing-based consulting firm Azure International.
The El Nino cycle makes hydropower unreliable for the summer peak, she added.
“With high LNG prices, gas-fired power generation faces significant economic headwinds,” she said.
“If the wind and solar curtailment is not improved, coal-fired units will unfortunately be the reliable and cost-effective option for providing critical peaking capacity.”
(Reporting by the Beijing newsroom and Colleen Howe; Writing by Farah Master; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Stephen Coates and Jan Harvey)
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